Learning from the Future: Competitive Foresight Scenarios

Scenario Book SynopsisCitationOverall descriptionFahey, L., & Randall, Robert M. (1998). Learning from thefuture : Competitive foresight scenarios.Learning from the Future is a comprehensive overview of scenariodevelopment and usage. The book is composed of 25 chapterscontributed by practitioners and compiled and edited into four parts.1. Introduction to Scenario Learning2. Basic Approaches to Constructing Scenarios3. Scenario Application in Diverse Contexts4. Managing the Organizational Context for Scenario LearningThe first 10 chapters which compose parts 1 & 2 are the most useful asthey provide a solid grounding in how to build and use scenarios. Themost salient point of the book is that scenario learning is composed oftwo elements: constructing or developing scenarios, and integrating thecontent of scenarios into decision making (pg. 5). This book address bothelementsThe main of the idea of the book is that scenarios should be used tocreate insights that drive decision making, not planning. They proposeusing the term Scenario Learning, instead of Scenario Planning. The laterterm however has become the ubiquitous term.The purposes of scenarios are:1. To augment understanding2. Produce new decisions3. Reframe existing decisions4. Identify contingent decisionsMain IdeasThere is no single method to developing and using scenarios howeverthere are two basic approaches: Future Backward: select several futures and discover paths thatlead to it Future Forward: construct scenarios based on induction andknowledge about the present by identifying driving forces andmatching it to uncertain conditions of the greatest importanceUncertainty is not the same as probability. If a future outcome will bedetermined by a set of circumstances we cannot now estimate oranticipate, then that outcome is uncertain and no probability can beascribed to the various outcomes. (pg. 44)The book provides many methods in great detail: Plotting scenarios (2x2 scenario matrix, iceberg model, systemsthinking) Mental Maps of the Future (3x3 impact/uncertainty matrix) Scenario Planning (Future Mapping), a list of sequential eventsleading to an end state Testing strategies using scenarios Dynamic Scenarios, causal loop diagrams for sets of variables Simulation models (systems thinking and simulation)Parts 3 & 4 of the book provide many use cases. Since the book waspublished in 1998 it is interesting to see how close and divergent thescenarios are. Some specific use cases are: Global investment strategy target 2010 Scenario process at Optech Diagnostic & Surgical Pty Ltd (surgicalinstruments) Competitive scenario: SoftFollower vs Softleader (hypothetical) Planning for technology investments (significantly underestimatesthe rate of change) Customer driven scenario planning (mutual fund example) Future consumer products (Futuring) Economic Scenarios (Econometric Models: technical, policy,structural) Mont Fleur scenario exercise for South AfricaOverall recommendationLearning from the Future is so comprehensive, at 446 pages, it is a bitoverwhelming. I found the most valuable content was the introduction toscenarios and the various methods in parts 1 & 2, which are the first 186pages.Since the book was written in 1998 the example cases are bothenlightening (since we are already past the futures envisioned), but alsovery dated in terms of assumption development. For example, oneindustry example was looking at the almost impossible scenario of 10-15% YOY growth, with speculation about if management and systemscould change that fast. Within 3 years the .Com boom and theemergence of the internet knowledge economy changed the concept ofthe rate of change. As we move into exponential organizations andcontinued technology acceleration, I think more current use cases wouldbe of greater value to study, so I did not read them in detail but skimmedthe key takeaways.I would recommend the book as a core component of a Foresight library,as it provides a solid foundation of scenario development and their use.The use cases are more of a reference however, and I would supplementwith more current examples. At the time the book was written, strategywas not as well developed or accepted as a discipline, it has evolved inthe last 17 years.

If you talk to someone about using scenarios to think about the future, chances are that the other person will nod her/his head in agreement with whatever you have to say. That surface agreement, however, will be misleading because the other person is probably thinking about a totally different kind of scenario thinking than you are.Learning from the Future helps overcome that misunderstanding by explaining a large number of ways that scenarios can be used. The book contains 25 chapters which each look at a different aspect of scenario development and subsequent thinking.Three chapters look at what scenario learning is. Seven chapters explore basic approaches to constructing scenarios. Eight chapters describe how to apply scenarios in different contexts, like competitor evaluations, technology investing, making public policy decisions, and considering customers. The final section looks at how to create the right organizational environment for making and using scenarios for learning.You will benefit from reading the thoughts of many of the world's top experts and users of scenario learning including Peter Schwartz, Kees van der Keijden, Ian Wilson, Liam Fahey and Robert Randall. It is a great line-up, and what they have to say is good food for thought.If you would like a good introduction to scenario learning, this is an excellent place to start because the perspectives that are captured are unusually broad and appropriate.This book belongs in the business library of every business decision-maker. When an important question arises, you can use this book as a resource to think through how you might best use scenarios to create a better result. Enjoy!

This book, written in 1997, is one of the very best works on scenario planning-or scenario learning, as the editors prefer. The 446-page book is a collection of 25 chapters by a variety of authors, each adding a perspective to the scenario learning process. Fahey and Randall explain how scenario learning builds on traditional scenario planning, then follow up with a chapter on integrating scenarios with strategy. Several essays explain basic approaches to constructing scenarios. The next section shows how to apply scenario learning in diverse contexts including industry scenarios, competitive positioning, technology investments, and anticipating new consumer products. The last section details the vital step of managing the organizational context for scenario learning. Included in this section is a contribution by Kees van der Heijden on the business idea, and Paul Schoemaker on common pitfalls in scenario planning. This book is an excellent resource on the practical use of scenarios in business strategy. It mostly avoids overcomplicating the process as some other books have done, and it focuses on practical strategic implementation, not scenarios for their own sake. At a time when the New Economy continually throws up surprises, looking ahead with scenario learning is more timely than ever.

Not as detailed as I expected. Little new information

Highly recommend it for any one willing to understand how business development works incase you are in a position to change an organization's philosophy.